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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still