A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
